The world economy is experiencing the most severe oil shock in decades. The worst could still be on the way.
Surging oil prices continue to ripple through the global economy because of the war with Iran. Now, some analysts say the worst could still be ahead as the conflict drags on.
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The concern is that beyond immediate knock-on effects from rising gasoline prices, the war’s disruption could come in waves — ones that will play out over weeks and months and leave few parts of the global economy untouched.
“We haven’t seen the brunt of it yet,” said Samantha Gross, director of energy security and climate at the Brookings Institute. “I feel like markets are so far underestimating the effect of the war. It seems that they expect this war to go quickly, and they expect that we can go back to the world before when it’s over. And I don’t think either of those ideas is true.”
The warning signs are already here. The global oil price benchmark, Brent crude — which heavily influences U.S. gasoline prices — briefly topped $119 a barrel last week, the highest since the war began and a level last seen in July 2022 amid the pandemic-era inflation wave. As of Monday, Brent prices had settled at about $113 a barrel.
