When Will Silver Stocks Catch Up to the Silver Price?
The silver price remains historically high despite a recent pullback, and many silver stocks haven’t kept pace.
Silver’s strong performance over the past year is the result of a perfect storm of factors, including an entrenched supply deficit, growing industrial demand, a weakening US dollar and deepening geopolitical and economic uncertainty.
For these reasons, investors are flocking to silver for both its safe-haven status and its developing role as a critical metal in energy, artificial intelligence and defense technologies.
As of early February, the silver price was trading in a range of US$70 to US$80 per ounce, while the Amplify Junior Silver Miners ETF (ARCA:SILJ) was trading between about US$31 to US$32 per share.
SILJ tracks small-cap and mid-cap producers, developers and explorers that derive most of their revenue from silver. The profit margins of this segment of the silver-mining industry are the most sensitive to rising silver prices, hence SILJ tends to outperform the price of physical silver during bull markets.
Why is there a lag between the silver price and silver stocks?
During a presentation at the Vancouver Resource Investment Conference (VRIC), held from January 25 to 26, Peter Krauth, editor of Silver Stock Investor and Silver Advisor, looked at the performance of silver stocks relative to the price of physical silver, honing in on the silver-mining exchange-traded funds.
‘So we actually have had negative leverage in silver stocks versus silver. If you look back over one year, two years, we’re essentially even. You’ve gotten no reward for taking on additional risk by being in the silver stocks.’
Why are silver stocks, particularly those on the SILJ, lagging behind the performance of the physical metal?
Krauth explained that valuation models for these stocks are still factoring in silver prices at US$25 to US$30, even though last quarter the price was averaging around US$70 per ounce. “They essentially almost all need to be revalued because silver is so much higher, and that hasn’t happened yet,” he said.
“I think they’re going to have to redo their calculations for gold and silver miners.”
“That caps their earnings. Well, the good news for speculators, investors and mining stocks is that those hedges expire,” said Penny, who believes that the relative outperformance of the silver stocks to the silver price will “kick in soon.’
When will silver stocks catch up to the silver price?
Penny is looking for those hedges to expire over the first few quarters of the year.
“Then that’s where these mining stocks, the profits are just going to go through the roof. I mean, even if we pull back to the mid US$60s — not expecting that — but even if that were to happen, these mining stocks are not pricing in US$60 silver. They’re still pricing in sub-US$50 silver. So a lot of upside potential here for the mining stocks,” he said.
Barton is also looking for a move sooner rather than later, especially with earning calls coming up.
“I think we have a catch-up trade coming. I think it’s coming soon. So if no one has taken advantage of this yet, I think you need to act like now,” said Barton, who later added, “Assuming the silver price could stay above, you know, US$75 an ounce or so, that should blow out expectations. And I think it’ll be a really nice trade. I really do.”
But that won’t be the end of the party for silver. Krauth sees strong potential over the next two or three years for a “dramatic run” for the silver sector. And like his peers, he sees that run starting soon.
“I think what we’re going to see is over the next few quarters, as those projects, producers, cashflows, get revalued at higher input prices, we’re going to see the profit margins really explode and expand,” he said. “We’re going to see when those numbers get reported, the market is going to start to appreciate that and start to re-rate a lot of these stocks.”
Rick’s rules for silver sector profits
Rick Rule, investment guru and proprietor at Rule Investment Media, is already making plays in this latest silver bull market, leveraging the profits he’s made in physical silver to better position himself for the next stage.
“My reasoning being as follows: if silver goes nowhere for a year, if it stays rangebound, the best silver producers are discounting US$45 silver a year from now, if the price is at US$75 or US$80 they’ll be discounting US$75 or US$80 silver, which means the stock will be up 50, 60, 70 percent,” he explained.
“The speculative outlook for the silver stocks seemed to be better than the speculative outcome for silver. If silver stays flat for a year, by definition, silver won’t give me any return. But if it stays flat, the silver stocks would give me 50 or 60 percent so it was a better speculative outcome,’ Rule added.
What did he do with the rest of his gains from his physical silver investment? He parked 25 percent in physical gold. “That’s how I save. I maintain liquidity in US currency, and I save in gold,” said Rule.
The other 25 percent went into oil and gas stocks. “As you know, my motto is that I buy hate and I sell love. Silver was loved, so I sold it. Oil and gas were hated, so I bought it.”
Both Krauth and Barton are on board with Rick’s Rules for silver investment.
“(Rule) has had for a long time a significant position in physical silver, and has sold a good portion of that because he is looking for value all the time and not sitting still. And he decided that those proceeds were going to go to where he saw value,” said Krauth. “And that’s part of my thesis going forward as well — that the value, or the unrealized value, in the silver space is now, especially in the miners.”
Barton also sees value in this strategy. “I have been selling some physical silver, and I’ve been putting it into oil stocks, and I’ve been putting it into gold and silver miners because they have not played that catch-up trade, right?,” he said. “Spot gold and silver are relatively expensive compared to very good silver and very good gold miners. So that could be a place where you could take some profits and rotate into the next leg up.”
Securities Disclosure: I, Melissa Pistilli, hold no direct investment interest in any company mentioned in this article.
